Introduction

When we present and discuss DNB Disruptive Opportunities' various investment strategies, a set of natural questions often emerge: What will the future look like? Will everyone become unemployed? Will there be chaos? Will we have universal basic income?

We don't have all the answers, but we have perspectives based on an analytical approach grounded in the consequences of technology. In this edition of "Disruptive Perspectives," we attempt to explain technology's impact on society, businesses, and individuals. We apply established concepts and theories to illuminate these changes. We also analyze various investment strategies to be positively exposed to these changes, without recommending anything other than learning and understanding.

Our goal, as always, is to share perspectives. We manage stocks, not truths, so hopefully you'll find yourself agreeing, disagreeing, and even frustrated. Neither this nor other perspective papers from us will form the basis for a Nobel Prize nomination in content, precision, or correct citations. We share perspectives, not academic articles.

Wealth of Nations 1.0

Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations from 1776 is considered a cornerstone of classical economics and forms the basis for much economic understanding. Smith's main principles can be summarized as follows:

These principles form the foundation of Smith's optimism about economic growth, where labor, market forces, and capital work together to create wealth. But what happens when physical and digital agents begin to replace human labor?

The Decoupling of Labor and Economic Growth

Adam Smith's theory has closely linked economic growth to wage labor – people work, produce goods and services, and this drives the economy. The decoupling of labor effort and wages means that economic growth can be achieved without being dependent on increased workforce or traditional forms of work. This happens through physical and digital agents.

The Four Horsemen Riding Toward the Labor Market

What if we're seeing the contours of a Wealth of Nations 2.0? If society faces a period of major changes where everything from social and societal contracts is broken and must be rewritten? Our analysis of these changes is linked to technological changes from digital agents, physical agents, self-driving units, and voice command control. The power of these four on Adam Smith's world is so great that we somewhat loosely call them the Four Horsemen from the Book of Revelation (6:1-8). We use them as metaphors to describe how these technologies disrupt human wage labor.

Combined Effect: The Decoupling of Work and Economic Value

The four horsemen – digital agents, physical agents, self-driving transport, and voice commands – are changing the labor market in ways that challenge Adam Smith's economic framework:

• Division of Labor: Smith saw specialization as the key to increased productivity, but agents are taking over specialized tasks and eliminating human labor.
• The Invisible Hand: The market continues to create wealth, but the benefits concentrate with technology owners, not workers, weakening Smith's vision of broad prosperity.
• Labor's Value: Smith's labor theory of value becomes irrelevant when agents generate value without wage costs, leading to a "value crisis."
• Capital Accumulation: Capital in the form of AI and robots drives growth, but without need for labor, creating "capital autonomy."

Wealth of Nations 2.0 Summary

Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations emphasizes division of labor, the invisible hand, free markets, capital accumulation, and labor as sources of economic growth. Physical and digital agents disrupt by taking over work tasks, increasing productivity but decoupling economic growth from wage labor.

Using analogies like the automatic pin factory, the digital invisible hand, and the self-driven economy, along with new concepts like agent-driven value creation, capital autonomy, and post-work growth, we can explain this decoupling. Smith's framework still explains growth mechanisms, but his assumption of labor as source of value and broad wealth distribution is challenged. An agent-driven economy requires new economic and political solutions to ensure that growth benefits all of society, in line with Smith's original vision of shared prosperity.

Disruption of the Formula for Economic Growth?

Economics is based on scarcity. Without scarcity, economics would barely exist. A human uses anywhere from 16 to 30 years to become productive and has biological limitations on how long they can work and for how many years. Digital and physical agents need an update and are productive the moment they leave the server or factory. For the first time, human feet, hands, and cognitive processes will no longer be a limitation – labor goes from being a scarce resource to becoming an unlimited resource with unit prices (hourly rates) for work performed falling toward zero.

The Agent Economy: What Is It Really? Is It New?

Let's return to the transformative technologies themselves. Agents. What are they? The agent economy refers to economic activities where third-party actors (agents) act on behalf of other parties (principals) to perform tasks, make decisions, or facilitate transactions. In the context of Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations and modern economics, we can categorize agents into four generic groups:

The Historical Development of Agents

We've discussed physical and digital agents with our "wealthy" and "family office investors" for a while already. Sometimes it helps understanding to take a long historical step back. Agents are not new – what's new is that physical and digital agents are replacing human agents.

Social Contract and Societal Contract: New Meaning

The decoupling of economic growth from wage labor challenges traditional notions of the social contract (the individual's relationship to society) and the societal contract (the state's role in ensuring welfare). Traditionally, as in Smith's ideas, labor was a central part of the social contract: individuals contributed to society through work and received wages and welfare in return. With a reduced labor market, these concepts take on new meaning:

Universal Basic Income - An Inevitable Consequence?

Universal Basic Income (UBI) is an economic system where all citizens in a society regularly receive an unconditional sum of money from the state, regardless of income, work, or other conditions. The goal is to ensure economic security, reduce poverty, and give individuals freedom to pursue activities such as work, entrepreneurship, or non-economic contributions like care or volunteering. UBI has gained renewed relevance in light of automation by digital and physical agents, which naturally reduces the need for human wage labor.

Investment Strategies Around Digital Agents

Digital agents, such as autonomous AI systems, algorithms, and software that make decisions or take actions on behalf of users, are a central driver of economic growth in 2025. These agents are transforming sectors like finance, healthcare, logistics, and consumer services by automating complex tasks. In light of Adam Smith's principles of division of labor and market efficiency, digital agents represent a new form of specialization that increases productivity.

Investment Strategies Around Physical Agents

Physical agents, such as industrial robots, humanoid robots, and autonomous machines, are transforming sectors like manufacturing, logistics, healthcare, and consumer services by automating physical tasks. In 2025, these agents are central to productivity growth, driven by advances in robotics, AI, and sensors.

Self-Driving from an Investment Perspective

Self-driving units, such as autonomous cars, trucks, drones, and maritime systems, are disrupting sectors like transport, logistics, agriculture, and defense by automating mobility. Today, these units are driven by advances in AI, sensors, and enabling technologies like 5G. This plays a central role in increasing productivity and reducing human labor.

Investment Strategies Around Voice Commands

Voice commands (speech-based interfaces), AR glasses (wearable devices that blend digital information into the physical world), and metaverse ecosystems (virtual worlds) are central technologies in 2025. They create change in sectors like entertainment, work, commerce, and social interaction by creating seamless, realistic experiences. These technologies often overlap, for example, AR glasses use voice commands for interaction in metaverse environments.

Investment Matrix Analysis

We provide no advice on stocks, but gladly share various methods for analyzing and understanding stocks. Here's how to think about investing in companies developing these four horsemen technologies:

Conclusion: The New Economic Paradigm

We stand at the threshold of Wealth of Nations 2.0, where the fundamental relationship between labor and economic value is being rewritten. The Four Horsemen – digital agents, physical agents, self-driving units, and voice interfaces – are not just technological innovations; they represent a fundamental disruption of the economic principles that have governed prosperity since Adam Smith.

By using the Four Horsemen from Revelation as metaphors, we see how digital agents, physical agents, self-driving transport, and voice commands disrupt human wage labor. Each horseman represents a technological force that increases productivity but decouples work from economic value, challenging Adam Smith's principles of division of labor, the invisible hand, and labor as a source of value.

This creates a new economic landscape where solutions like universal basic income, retraining, or new forms of societal engagement are needed to address the consequences. Like the biblical horsemen, these technologies herald both the destruction of old structures and the possibility for a new beginning.

The transition to this new paradigm won't be smooth or equitable without deliberate policy choices. But understanding these forces – and positioning accordingly – is essential for navigating the profound economic transformation ahead. The future belongs to those who can adapt to a world where machines do the work, and humans must find new ways to create and capture value. Enormous fortunes will change hands in this transformation. We believe.